Fine Gael has become a Parody of its own Principles
Ireland has Closed its Eyes to How Immigration can Power the Political Extremes
There are three essential elements to any committed Blueshirt (a traditional slur on centre right Fine Gael voters in Ireland).
The first is an unwavering ownership of the actions and legacy of the late, great Michael Collins. It’s simply not debateable – the General would have led the pro-Treaty brigade to a dreamier, unicorn filled future.
The second is a vague understanding (receding quickly in this era of annual budget giveaways) that Fine Gael is the party of fiscal responsibility. The people who make the hard financial choices. Draw a line from Ernest Blythe in the 1920s to a post-bailout Michael Noonan. Fine Gael steadies the ship after Fianna Fáil blows the cash.
Thirdly, and most problematically for Fine Gael given the recent violence in Dublin, is that public order and security matters are traditionally viewed as their own personal fiefdom. Afterall, who built the state in the 1920s while others were still rattling on about unity and freedom?
Alas, the social discontent which exploded recently in Dublin (and which simmers constantly in Cork) belies a much more significant political cleavage for modern Fine Gael.
Because in losing their credibility as the law and order party Fine Gael has allowed itself to become a parody of one of its own essential principles.
And, unfortunately, that’s not even the worst part.
In desperately seeking to be “modern” and “progressive” Fine Gael has actually succeeded in creating a huge vacuum on the right of the political spectrum. In focussing almost exclusively on being socially hip and economically liberal they have unwittingly exacerbated the housing, crime and immigration issues that will now dominate the next election cycle and beyond.
Thus allowing more radical, more racist right wing messages to take hold.
So instead of a classic centre-right narrative dominating the airwaves about fair (but managed) immigration, getting serious on anti-social behaviour and clamping down on the types of crime that impact social narratives the widest (muggings, public drug use, car and bike theft) – Ireland is now confronted by more violent and disparate voices.
In deserting the centre-right ground on public order, Fine Gael has surrendered its credibility as a moderating force on the expanding fringes of right wing political discourse.
And this spells real trouble for Ireland in the years ahead.
More worryingly still is that Fine Gael’s response to the violence – more cops (some bodycams) and keep shopping in the city centre – shows they still don’t understand the enormity of their mistakes.
The sad reality is that the refusal of Fine Gael to lead a national debate on the role and scale of immigration is now coming home to roost. And this vacuum is being seized upon by those who want to weaponize “foreigners” as a radicalising tool.
Instead of understanding Brexit as a warning of how quickly multicultural societies can pivot politically on the issue of immigration, Ireland instead chose to sneer at British policy choices. Instead of taking the time to see how a housing crises in the Netherlands fuelled right wing populism and anti-migrant rhetoric, Ireland focuses on stoking higher rents. Instead of examining why the Swedish public lost trust in their governments ability to handle inward migration, Ireland still refuses to seriously debate, quantify or examine the future role of migration in Irish society.
Irish political parties would much rather wallow in the rainbow of a “shared island” than engage in the down and dirty process of building a sustainable Irish immigration policy. Afterall, this requires hard political compromise, but it’s also absolutely critical to a small, open, hyper-globalised economy like Irelands.
Afterall, even the worst housing crisis in the history of the State couldn’t temper the sheer desperation of Dublin to be seen as the best of humanitarians when it came to the Ukraine war. Less than two years later, the naivety of the government as to the wider, longer term impacts on Irish society is hard to fathom.
Immigrants should always be welcome in Ireland, but when you reach the point that a significant proportion of Irish society feels the government no longer cares (or controls) who enters the State, then a political inflection point has been reached.
The most vulnerable here are Fine Gael. Stripped of the credibility of being the hard on crime party they are open to threats from both the harder right and those in the centre always willing to trade a few votes for rhetorical flourishes.
However, with much of Sinn Fein more interested in Palestine than Parnell Street all is not yet lost for the baffled Blueshirts. The middle class Irish impulse to avoid any speck of radicalisation remains strong.
But to reconnect with the majority of Irish voters, Fine Gael must again champion pragmatic solutions to the day to issues which exercise minds across Ireland. Fine Gael needs to rediscover its principles, and keeping all who live in Ireland safe should be the only place to start.